09/07/2026 03:39 PM

Johor Polls: High Voter Turnout May Give PH The Edge - Analyst

By Hasnah Jusid

JOHOR BAHRU, July 9 (Bernama) -- A high voter turnout in the 16th Johor state election this Saturday is seen as potentially benefiting candidates from the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, particularly in urban and semi-urban constituencies with large numbers of outstation, young and fence-sitting voters.

Political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said political stability at the federal level, improving economic indicators, and government assistance to the people, including financial initiatives and subsidies, could encourage PH supporters to return home to vote.

He said voters who have benefited from the government's stability and the current economic conditions are likely to want to ensure the continuity of PH’s administration, both at the federal level and in Johor.

“These voters feel that what they are enjoying now, such as political stability, a strong economy, and government assistance, including petrol and diesel subsidies, will motivate them to ensure that the PH government remains in power.

“This may encourage them, especially those living outside Johor, to return home to vote and take part in the democratic process,” he told Bernama.

Elaborating further, he said the 2022 Johor state election demonstrated how low voter turnout significantly affected PH's performance, as many outstation voters did not return home to cast their ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mazlan, who is also director of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Kuala Lumpur Campus, said voter turnout in the 2022 Johor state election was just over 50 per cent, giving an advantage to Barisan Nasional (BN), giving an advantage to BN, which enjoys a strong local support base and a large pool of core supporters in the state.

“As a result, BN won 40 seats because it had a large number of local voters and a strong political base in Johor,” he said.

However, he noted that a different trend emerged during the 15th General Election (GE15), held later that same year, when voter turnout rose to about 75 per cent, and PH succeeded in winning 14 parliamentary seats in Johor.

He added that PH’s popular vote also increased significantly, from about 350,000 votes in the 2022 Johor state election to 830,000 votes in GE15.

“In other words, PH's popular vote more than doubled compared with before, enabling the coalition to win 14 parliamentary seats. If translated into the state assembly context, it is logical to expect PH to win more seats,” he said.

Mazlan said this year’s Johor state election is being held under different circumstances, with pandemic-related restrictions no longer in place and signs that outstation voters are more inclined to return home to cast their ballots.

He said urban and semi-urban constituencies are expected to be key battlegrounds for PH, as voters in these areas are generally more responsive to current issues, governance performance, economic policies and political offerings centred on social justice.

“Most PH supporters are outstation voters, fence-sitters, young people, the educated, and those who are highly mobile and active on social media. They are attracted to PH's narrative, which emphasises justice and fairness for the people.

“They differ from voters who are more influenced by racial and religious sentiments. That is why, when these outstation voters return home, they tend to support PH,” he said.

“This wave of outstation voters could be a deciding factor, especially in urban and semi-urban constituencies. If they return in large numbers, they could shift the balance of support in several key seats,” he added.

Mazlan said PH’s main challenge in the final days of campaigning is to ensure its supporters actually turn out to vote, particularly those living outside Johor who remain registered voters in the state.

For the latest news on the 16th Johor state election, visit https://prn.bernama.com/johor/.

-- BERNAMA

 

 

 


 

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