MOSCOW, Oct 16 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz amid El Niño could heighten risks to global agriculture and food security, United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) chief economist Maximo Torero said, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.
“The main message is that these risks could reinforce one another,” Torero said.
FAO data suggest that shipping disruptions could compound the risks to agricultural production associated with El Niño by driving up commodity prices and reducing availability.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
The Rome-based FAO has not published global forecasts quantifying the combined impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and El Niño on crop yields or global food prices, Torero said.
“The outcome will depend on the duration of shipping and energy disruptions, the timing and geographical severity of El Niño-related weather anomalies, planting calendars, farmers’ input decisions, biofuel demand and policy responses,” he said.
Higher energy and fertiliser costs could constrain agricultural production, while unfavourable weather conditions could further reduce yields in affected regions and limit the ability of other producing countries to compensate for losses, Torero said.
He stressed the need to monitor harvest prospects, fertiliser and energy markets, trade flows, freight costs, biofuel demand and food price trends.
On February 28, the United States (US) and Israel began striking targets in Iran, prompting Iranian retaliation.
The conflict remains unresolved, although active combat has ceased, with the US relying on economic pressure.
The escalation has brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil, petroleum products and liquefied natural gas supplies, to a near standstill.
As a consequence, fuel prices have risen in many countries.
-- BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI